Liberals projected to win 4th term in remarkable reversal of political fortunes | CBC News (2025)

Mark Carney's Liberals are expected to form the nextgovernment, CBC News projects, a feat that seemed impossiblejust a fewmonths ago.

With polls reporting across the country, theCBCDecision Desk is projecting a fourth Liberal term but it's too early totell whether it will be majority or minority government.

The night has largely become a two-party race.

The Liberalshare of the vote has fluctuated and now hovers just below 43 per cent. The Conservative vote share stands at about 42 per cent, which would be an extremely strong showing for the party under other circumstances. Preliminary results suggest Bloc Québécoisand NDPsupport faltered, withNew Democrats at risk of losing party status.

Carney, a central banker turned prime minister, reversed his party's fortunes after polling earlier this year suggested defeat was all but guaranteed.

Canadians had soured on former prime minister Justin Trudeau and polls suggested Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would snap up the majority government he'd long been waiting for.

Then came Trudeau'searly January resignation, U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and persistent barbs about making Canada the 51st state —flipping thepolitical script.

With Trump announcing, pausing, then re-announcing devastating tariffs on Canadian goods, the campaign largely became a race about who is best to steer Canada through global uncertainty.

Carney focusedon Trump

Carneytried to define himself as a steady, mature outsider who is best to deal with the unpredictable president and map out a new economic and security relationship. Heading into the campaign, Carney did not have a seat in the House of Commons. That changed Monday as CBC News projects he's won the Ottawa riding of Nepean.

This is the first time since the 1880s a prime minister has represented a riding in what's now Ottawa. John A. Macdonald represented Carleton, as in the former county of Carleton, from 1882 to 1887.

While criss-crossing the country, the freshly minted leader pointed to his time as the governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 global financial crisis and head of the Bank of England during the Brexit years as evidence that Canadians should trust him to steer the country's economy through turbulent times.

WATCH |How CBC News makes projections on election night:

In one of his most repeated campaign speech lines, Carney argued that "Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us."

"And well, that will never happen," he frequently told crowds that gathered to hear the political newbie speak.

Carney has had a whirlwind 2025 so far. He handily won the Liberal leadership March 9 and was sworn in as prime minister just nine days before triggering an election.

Carney's greatest weakness going into the campaign was expected to be his shaky French, which he gradedsix out of 10, but he emerged from the French debate and an ever-important interview with the popular show Tout le monde en parlerelatively unscathed.

His campaign did hit some snags.He was accused last week of not telling the whole truth about his conversationwith Trump after it was revealed the president raised Canada becoming the 51st state on the call. Carney had said immediately after the call thatTrump respected Canada's sovereignty.

The last day of the campaign is usually filled with excitement as the parties try to build final momentum and get their message out. Sunday however was tinged by tragedy, following a car-ramming at a Filipino street festival in Vancouver that left 11 dead and more than 20 injured.

While Carney's final push was toned down, he did hit contested areas including Saskatoon and Edmonton, a sign his campaign was confident heading into Monday's vote.

The Liberal election night headquarters in downtown Ottawa has been buoyant sincemajor news networks projected a Liberal win, with supporters erupting into cheers.

Carney is expected to address Canadians, but is waiting for more results to come through.

Poilievre pushed for change

The mood at the Conservative headquarters, just blocks away, was understandably much different.

Monday's results are obviously not what Poilievre, who has helmed the party since 2022 and very much shaped the party, wanted to see. He spent the last five weeks pushing for a change election whilearguing Carney is an extension of the last 10 years of Liberal rule.

"After the lost Liberal decade of rising crime, chaos, drugs and disorder,we cannot risk a fourth Liberal term. We have to reverse the policies that got us into this mess," he said Sunday at a packed rally in Oakville, Ont., in one of his last appeals to voters.

Poilievre spent part of the last week rallying his base with stops in relatively safe regions in Alberta and Saskatchewan and trying to make gains in the Greater Toronto Area.

His final stop Sunday was in his Ottawa riding of Carleton, which the Liberals had been targeting.Poilievre has represented the riding since 2004.

Known for his combative style of politics, Poilievre has tried to offer a more calm — more smiley— image lately.Throughout the campaign he has turned to his own story, born to a teen mom and adopted by teachers, as an example of what's possible in this country while arguing the "promise" of Canada has been broken.

He'd managed to attract levels of support not seen since Stephen Harper's 2011 majority win, but watched his party's 20-plus point lead in the polls nosedive as NDP, Bloc and Green voters turn to Carney's Liberals.

Poilievrefaced criticism that he was too slow to pivot from the ballot box questions he wantedto campaign on — the carbon tax, affordability and Trudeau's unpopularity —to Trump's trade war and revived Canadian patriotism.

Hedefended his approach, arguing Canadians share his concerns about the housing crisis and illegal drugs.

"I will not stop talking about these problems that predate Donald Trump and that will outlast Donald Trump if we do not fix them," the leader argued.

NDP vote collapsing

With the campaign framed so tightly around Trump, the other two main parties have sometimes found themselves squeezed out of the conversation.

The results so far suggest the NDP vote is collapsing.

Singh, fronting his third campaign as leader, has been dogged by questions about the NDP's poor polling and his future since the campaign started.

He pushed back, arguing that sending NDP MPs to the House of Commons in a minority government will keep the next government in check and "improve people's lives."

WATCH | Key ridings to watch on election night in Canada:

Friday he stood by his decision to not trigger a federal election sooner, even after ripping up the supply-and-confidence agreement he had signed with the Trudeau Liberals.

"I could not stomach the idea of Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives forming a majority government," Singh said.

"I knew that it was going to be bad because of their cuts, because of the division, because of the things they wanted."

Singh is quick to point out his deal with Trudeau pushed the Liberals to bring in pharmacare and a dental care programs, policies that New Democrats have sought for years.

Singh spent the final days of the campaign shoring up orange support in the border city of Windsor, Ont., and then in British Columbia as the party hopes to maintain officialparty status.

Bloc leader pitches his party as best for Quebec

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, who is projected to be re-elected inBeloeil-Chambly,has also been working to hold the balance of power in the House, with his home province once again proving to be an important battleground for deciding the final outcome. The separatistparty only runs candidates in Quebecand itsmandate haslong been to act as a voice for Quebecers in Ottawa.

During the final days of the campaign,Blanchet courted controversy when hedescribed his role as serving in a "foreign Parliament" and called Canada "an artificial country with very little meaning."

"This nation is not mine," he said.

Polls suggested the Green Party was at risk of being wiped off Canada's electoral map. Co-Leader Elizabeth May will hold onto her Saanich-Gulf Islands riding, CBCNews projects.Co-Leader Jonathan Pedneaultwas hoping to win a seat but is currently in fourth place in the Montreal riding of Outremont.

Approximately 7.3 million Canadians already voted in advance polls, according to Elections Canada.