Every day, Pinstripe Alley offers updates on what the Yankees’ top American League opponents are up to through the Rivalry Roundup. The AL East is well-trodden ground there, but with the month of August coming to a close, we’re going to take a peek around MLB as a whole and check in with each of the other five divisions. Who’s surprising? Who’s underwhelming? Who’s simply mediocre at the moment? Read on and find out.
(Note: Records and standings are up to date through games played on Saturday, August 31st.)
First Place: Philadelphia Phillies (80-56)
Top Position Player: Bryce Harper (4.1 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Zach Wheeler (4.4 fWAR)
The Phillies have done just enough to keep a healthy division lead. The team was the first to reach 60 wins and was on pace for 111 wins. However, they have gone 19-23 since July 11th, when they hit that 60-23 record. Despite playing sluggish baseball in the second half, they remain in control of the division. While their NL East hold is strong, they will battle in September for a top-two seed to get a bye and skip the best-of-three Wild Card round. They end the month with the same record as the Brewers, the Dodgers two games ahead of them, and two games ahead of the Padres and Diamondbacks, who would both also need to surpass the Dodgers for the NL West title to secure the bye.
The Phillies’ starting rotation has remained extremely formidable in August, ranking second as a unit in ERA (3.52) for the season. While it was Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez shining in the rotation to start the year, recently their tried-and-true duo of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been great. Wheeler in particular shined in August with a 1.62 ERA including a statement seven-inning shutout performance on Saturday blanking the Phillies. His August has supplanted himself in the NL Cy Young conversation.
Although Suárez had an underwhelming start against the Braves on Friday night, he still holds a 3.02 ERA for the year. Every team in baseball would happily take him as their third starter in a playoff series.
So far, Dave Dombrowski’s midseason bullpen additions have worked out well. Deadline arms Tanner Banks (2.63 ERA with Philadelphia) and Carlos Estévez (2.13 ERA with Philadelphia) have both been effective since arriving in Philadelphia. If you believe in the fallacy of predetermined outcomes, as Michael Kay likes to say, you could look at those trades made by Philly as missed opportunities for the Yankees. Despite this, the Phillies’ bullpen still had a middle-of-the-pack 3.91 ERA this past month.
On offense, the team has seen peaks and valleys, but their best development this month has been Bryce Harper. After posting a .598 OPS in July, coming off an IL stint, in August he slashed a more characteristic .298/.365/.462. Nick Castellanos has had a much more favorable second half of his season with a .827 OPS post-All-Star break. The team’s offense ranks ninth in OPS+ for the season, making this a fairly well-rounded squad, but stronger and more consistent with its starting pitching.
Second Place: Atlanta Braves (74-62)
Top Position Player: Marcell Ozuna (4.4 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Chris Sale (5.7 fWAR)
Going 16-13 this month, the Braves have not done enough to make up ground since last month’s check-in. The problem is the team’s offense has underperformed its potential overall this season, sitting just below league average in OPS+ as a team. Even without Ronald Acuña Jr. since May (not that he was hitting much to start the year), this has still been a disappointing season for one of the most star-studded lineup in baseball. They suffered tough news with Austin Riley breaking his hand this month, which is expected to sideline him for at least the rest of the regular season.
The arrow may be pointing up, however. Atlanta’s August performance showed an improved wRC+ of 113. Trading for Jorge Soler and Ramón Laureano has given them a meaningful boost; Laureano has hit seven home runs with Atlanta, and Soler has added five. Marcell Ozuna has been the most consistent bat in the Braves’ lineup. Crucially, Matt Olson has hit well as of late, with eight home runs in August and a .944 OPS. He had a big night against Philadelphia on Thursday:
While the lineup has taken its lumps, the team’s pitching is top-notch. The unit ranks second in FanGraphs’ WAR with 19.3, 3.5 wins above replacement ahead of third-place Kansas City at 16.8. In one of the bigger surprises of the season, Chris Sale, with Zack Wheeler on his tail , is in pole position to win his first career Cy Young Award at 35 years old. He leads baseball in pitching fWAR, FIP, and strikeouts per nine innings. He is second behind Tarik Skubal in ERA. He has been elite at preventing home runs, allowing just one in the past two months over 10 starts. Outside of Sale, rookie starter Spencer Schwellenbach had a great August, posting a 3.07 ERA. He has an impressive 12.89 strikeouts per nine innings this season.
Third Place: New York Mets (72-62)
Top Position Player: Francisco Lindor (6.7 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Sean Manaea (2.3 fWAR)
At last month’s divisional check-in, the Mets were hot on the chase for a Wild Card spot after a strong June and July. Things cooled off a bit in August, with the team going 15-13. They are still within striking distance of surpassing the Braves for the final Wild Card spot, with FanGraphs playoff projections giving them a 25.4-percent chance.
As their record suggests, their team hitting and pitching numbers ranked in the middle of the pack for August. However, their one elite performer has been Francisco Lindor, who was among the best positional players in August, hitting .325/.372/.567. Although Shohei Ohtani will likely win the NL MVP if things hold relatively steady this upcoming month, Lindor is emerging as his biggest threat to winning a third MVP.
Even though Ohtani has a clear edge at the plate, Lindor has provided elite defense at shortstop. Ohtani has only served as a designated hitter this season.
Outside of Lindor, Jeff McNeil has had a complete turnaround in July and August with a 947 OPS since the All-Star break after a dreadful .591 in the first half of the year. Pete Alonso hit his 30th home run of the season on the last day of August. Trade Deadline acquisition Jesse Winker has also helped out, with a .342 batting average and .857 OPS in New York.
Their rotation lost a potential ace with Kodai Senga possibly sidelined for the season. Luis Severino has cooled off after an inspiring start to the year. The starting unit ranks 25th in FanGraphs WAR and is their biggest question if they do make the playoffs. David Peterson’s 8-1 record with a 2.81 ERA has certainly helped the Mets stay in the race, but there are underlying numbers that suggest it may be smoke and mirrors: a 5.12 xERA and 4.14 FIP. He relies on ground balls (90th percentile in ground-ball rate) rather than strikeouts, and we all know how fickle that style can be.
Fourth Place: Washington Nationals (61-75)
Top Position Player: Luis García Jr. (2.9 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (2.5 fWAR)
Even though they are out of the playoff hunt, as we saw this past week with their series win over the Yankees, they have some positive developments with young talent thriving. The 23-year-old CJ Abrams has put up a solid 3.2 WAR season with a 111 OPS+ and 27 steals. His defense, however, is still a work in progress, with -14 Outs Above Average this year. Luis García Jr. has heated up in the later summer months, posting a .948 OPS in July and .920 this past month. Eyes will be on James Wood for the closing month of the season, as a new core of position players begins to emerge in Washington.
Their prized starter, MacKenzie Gore, has continued to be shaky in his second full season. With a 4.45 ERA his baseball-card statistics are remarkably similar to his first season with the Nationals. On a better note for Washington, 23-year-old DJ Herz had a strong August with a 3.10 ERA in six starts and a impressive 28.9-percent strikeout rate for the year.
Last Place: Miami Marlins (50-86)
Top Position Player: Xavier Edwards (1.9 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Devlin Cronin: (1.2 fWAR)
The Marlins have had a nice surge in their offense with some young talent getting opportunities. They posted a wRC+ of 100 in August. For a team that had an 84 wRC+ going into August, league-average run creation is a welcome improvement. Shortstop Xavier Edwards, who went on the IL this week, headlines the group, hitting .349 with a .428 OBP. Despite hitting just one homer this season, his wRC+ sits at an impressive 143.
Even with the boost in hitting, they still went 10-18 in August because their rotation has been in shambles all season. Reflecting that, the team’s leader in WAR, Devlin Cronin, is a relief pitcher with a 4.65 ERA. With Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera carrying over-five ERAs, the Marlins have not had anyone step up in the absence of Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcántara this season.
