Read the latest fantasy football waiver wire pickups advice.
Weather Alert: Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to bring a weather system of heavy rains and strong winds to parts of the Atlantic Seaboard on Sunday. The NFL games likely to be most impacted are IND@BAL, BUF@WAS and NE@NYJ. All three locales have precipitation in the forecast on Sunday, along with the possibility of wind gusts of more than 30-plus MPH. For a guide to how weather can impact fantasy football, check out Jake Ciely’sweather guide.
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First and foremost, thank you for all the recent positive feedback. I’m relatively new to the football writing space (Ed. note: John has won awards for his baseball work and his brain is a perfect fit for football analysis. Don’t be fooled by his sincere albeit misguided humility), and it means the world to me. To all you new readers out there wondering what the hubbub’s about, we’re using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy football statistics in regard to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then we’ll mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do next week.
Quarterback
Available QBs With +40 Dropbacks Per Game
- Mac Jones, NE — 52.5 Dropbacks Per Game
- C.J. Stroud, HOU — 52.0 Dropbacks Per Game
- Matthew Stafford, LAR — 49.0 Dropbacks Per Game
- Kirk Cousins, MIN — 46.5 Dropbacks Per Game
- Sam Howell, WAS — 42.0 Dropbacks Per Game
- Kenny Pickett, PIT — 41.5 Dropbacks Per Game
Available QBs With +0.20 Expected Points Added Per Attempt, YTD
- Jordan Love, GB — 0.40 EPA/Attempt
- Kirk Cousins, MIN — 0.30 EPA/Attempt
- C.J. Stroud, HOU — 0.23 EPA/Attempt
- Jarred Goff, DET — 0.22 EPA/Attempt
- Sam Howell, WAS — 0.21 EPA/Attempt
- Baker Mayfield, TB — 0.21 EPA/Attempt
- Matthew Stafford, LAR — 0.20 EPA/Attempt
Available QBs With At Least Ten +20 Yard Attempts
- Derek Carr, NO — 11 +20 Yard Attempts
- Mac Jones, NE — 11 +20 Yard Attempts
- Kirk Cousins, MIN — 10 +20 Yard Attempts
- Jared Goff, DET — 10 +20 Yard Attempts
- Baker Mayfield, TB — 10 +20 Yard Attempts
If we scored these like Roto standings Mac Jones would come out as the top dog, but I must say the timing’s not right to make a move. Though the Pats have done an about-face on offense, slinging the ball all over the place under Bill O’Brien (4th in offensive plays run, 1st in both dropbacks and completions) their upcoming matchups are fierce. I’m not expecting much of anything in terms of offense over the next three weeks as New England faces the Jets, Diggs-less-but-still-dangerous Cowboys, and Saints in a row. In shallower leagues, Matthew Stafford’s my easy answer despite ranking 22nd in FAN PPG at the position. To me, Stafford looks as good as ever and is my current favorite to win Most Valuable Player. He’s third among all QBs in both dropbacks and passing yards. It’s only a matter of time before he starts converting those numbers into touchdowns, rocketing him up the fantasy leaderboard.
For the deeper leagues, it’s time to start considering C.J. Stroud as a legitimate pro quarterback and viable weekly fantasy option. Only two games into his career, he’s shown the all-important ability to process defenses. The pro game clearly isn’t too fast for him. We’re also witnessing growth in continuity with emerging WR talents Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Then, the delicious fantasy cherry on top — the porous Texans defense (who just lost CB Derek Stingley) — gives fantasy GMs the weekly gift of ideal game scripts on a fast track inside the dome.
Running Back
Available RBs With +7.0 Touches Per Game
- Jerome Ford, CLE — 17.0 Touches Per Game
- Jaylen Warren, PIT — 9.0 Touches Per Game
- Roschon Johnson, CHI — 8.5 Touches Per Game
- Sean Tucker, TB — 7.5 Touches Per Game
- Rico Dowdle, DAL — 7.0 Touches Per Game
- Tyjae Spears, TEN — 7.0 Touches Per Game
Available RBs With +0.95 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- Jerick McKinnon, KC — 1.44 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- Roschon Johnson, CHI — 1.39 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- Damien Harris, BUF — 1.32 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- Tony Jones, NO — 1.22 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- Samaje Perine, DEN — 1.07 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- Chuba Hubbard, CAR — 1.05 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- Gus Edwards, BAL — 0.97 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- De’Von Achane, MIA — 0.95 Fantasy Points Per Snap
Available RBs With +50% Touch Per Snap Rate
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 75.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
- Zamir White, LV — 60.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
- Deuce Vaughn, DAL — 52.2% Touch Per Snap Rate
- Keaontay Ingram, ARI — 50.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
- Elijah Mitchell, SF — 50.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
The first two RB lists are pretty much self-explanatory in describing volume and efficiency. The problem, however, is the list itself. What’s wrong with it? Well, it looks exactly like every other generic waiver column. So while you should absolutely add Jerome Ford and Roschon Johnson if they’re available, I’m going to assume that at least some of you did already (image below). I also know some of you play in deeper formats so the best advice is always scenario-specific. That said, your general RB strategy should be clear. Always stay focused on securing backups who dominate timeshare with a pathway to step into the lead role when called upon.
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All things considered, my true standout of the first two groups is Miami rookie De’Von Achane. Mike McDaniel’s schematics have made Raheem Mostert a must-start RB, but one with an extensive injury history and very little competition for work on a prolific offense. If Achane’s rostered, I’d pivot to Rico Dowdle to get exposure to the Cowboys.
For the more adventurous deep-diving spelunkers, I decided to try something different. I combed the TruMedia database to highlight players who haven’t gotten a ton of total opportunities but do get the ball when they’re on the field. This last group definitely feels different enough to earn my stamp of approval and then the plan’s simple. Use the same strategy that led us to Jerome Ford last week: 
Remain proactive and rely on our preseason analysis. So if Kyle Shanahan freezing out Elijah Mitchell in Week 2 found him on the waiver wire, correct that immediately. If the missile already has a home, add Zamir White, the only other human to garner a rush attempt this year for the Raiders not named Josh Jacobs.
Wide Receiver
Available WRs With +75 Routes Run, YTD
- K.J. Osborn, MIN — 88 Routes Run
- Robert Woods, HOU — 86 Routes Run
- Van Jefferson, LA — 84 Routes Run
- Kendrick Bourne, NE — 80 Routes Run
- Alec Pierce, IND — 76 Routes Run
Available WRs With +25% Target Per Route Run (min 5 Targets)
- Rashee Rice, KC — 38.9% Target Per Route Run
- River Cracraft, MIA — 31.8% Target Per Route Run
- Deonte Harty, BUF — 31.8% Target Per Route Run
- Demario Douglas, NE — 29.0% Target Per Route Run
- Nelson Agholor, BAL — 27.3% Target Per Route Run
- Mack Hollins, ATL — 25.0% Target Per Route Run
- Marvin Mims Jr., DEN — 25.0% Target Per Route Run
Available WRs With +0.50 Fantasy Points Per Route (min 4 Targets)
- Marvin Mims Jr., DEN — 1.45 Fantasy Points Per Route
- KaVontae Turpin, DAL — 1.00 Fantasy Points Per Route
- Rashee Rice, KC — 0.87 Fantasy Points Per Route
- River Cracraft, MIA — 0.84 Fantasy Points Per Route
- Nelson Agholor, BAL — 0.79 Fantasy Points Per Route
- Kalif Raymond, DET — 0.70 Fantasy Points Per Route
- Josh Reynolds, DET — 0.60 Fantasy Points Per Route
- Rashid Shaheed, NO — 0.56 Fantasy Points Per Route
We’ve only just begun the fantasy football season and injuries have decimated our once-robust player pool. It took just two weeks of play to strip the cupboard of any WRs who meet our parameters in terms of volume plus efficiency. Like last week it should go without saying if Josh Reynolds or Rashid Shaheed are available, prioritize them. Both have earned high-value end zone targets and are fully incorporated into their respective offenses. If we continue into the abyss and work under the premise that targets are earned, then routes run should carry the least amount of weight. Routes are awarded and the most easily removed if squandered.
Shifting over to a talent-based efficiency we hope will portend opportunity, a light shines on Broncos rookie wideout Marvin Mims Jr. He’s earned targets at a starter’s rate while simultaneously maximizing output. If Mims is available, he’s our guy. In the event he’s rostered, I’m going back to Rashee Rice in Kansas City. It’s been two weeks now and the Pat Mahomes-led Chiefs are bottom 10 in scoring (18.5 PPG) and EPA/Attempt (-0.05). The totals aren’t there for Rice (yet), but the potential payoff is earning Mahomes’ trust… which means winning your league. KC’s second-round rookie out of SMU has an eye-popping 38.9% Targets Per Route Run that easily translates into an every-week difference-maker if Andy Reid just turns up the volume.
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Tight End
Available TEs With +75.0% Route Participation, YTD
- Durham Smythe, MIA — 93.6% Route Participation
- Zach Ertz, ARI — 83.1% Route Participation
- Tyler Conklin, NYJ — 81.4% Route Participation
- Hunter Henry, NE — 81.0% Route Participation
- Luke Musgrave, GB — 80.7% Route Participation
- Sam LaPorta, DET — 77.8% Route Participation
- Cade Otton, TB — 76.3% Route Participation
- Irv Smith, CIN — 75.3% Route Participation
Available TEs Earning +5.5 Targets Per Week
- Zach Ertz, ARI — 9.0 Targets Per Week
- Hunter Henry, NE — 6.5 Targets Per Week
- Cole Kmet, CHI — 6.5 Targets Per Week
- Sam LaPorta, DET — 5.5 Targets Per Week
- Logan Thomas, WAS — 5.5 Targets Per Week
- Jake Ferguson, DAL — 5.5 Targets Per Week
Available TEs With +45 Air Yards Per Game
- Zach Ertz, ARI — 65.0 Air Yards Per Game
- Hunter Henry, NE — 60.5 Air Yards Per Game
- Luke Musgrave, GB — 48.0 Air Yards Per Game
- Mike Gesicki, NE — 43.0 Air Yards Per Game
- Durham Smythe, MIA — 39.0 Air Yards Per Game
- Cole Kmet, CHI — 37.0 Air Yards Per Game
- Hayden Hurst, CAR — 35.0 Air Yards Per Game
It’s really kind of funny that the most abundant position is tight end when you think about it. That said, so few stick out, you can basically take your choice. Just make sure Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, and Sam LaPorta are not sitting on the wire before bothering any further. After that, Miami’s Durham Smythe checks every box and there’s a chance Jaylen Waddle’s out this weekend. Smythe’s playing time alone should translate into fantasy points in the short term.
For my favorite long-term play, I’m going back to the well in Wisconsin and scooping Luke Musgrave wherever he’s been dropped. The Packers have been playing without their premier weapons — and they will command the defense’s attention as they return. Musgrave has elite route participation and leads all starting TEs in Air Yards Per Target (13.4). I think when Christian Watson finally steps back on the gridiron, he’ll challenge the deepest areas of the field, opening up intermediate stuff for the 6’6″ rookie TE.
THE “JUST SO I HAVE THIS ON RECORD, MOTHER OF ALL LONG-SHOT HAIL MARY SPECULATIONS”
Tyson Bagent, QB, CHI
Football media’s been buzzing nonstop about Justin Fields’ struggles in Chicago, so there’s no need to regurgitate all the bad stats you already know. Something you might not know, however, is that the Bears were so impressed with D-II standout QB Tyson Bagent this offseason they cut presumed backup P.J. Walker almost immediately after signing him to a deal. If you’re like me and have no clue who Tyson Bagent is, get ready to get excited. He’s an undrafted rookie from Shepherd University (where?) who did the unthinkable in his final two collegiate seasons, posting an absurd 9,580 passing yards and 94 touchdowns! Whether due to performance, tanking, or injury (fake or real), there’s a minute possibility we’ve stumbled on the next big thing. Probably not, but we can dream…
Thanks for reading, we all appreciate your support. Be on the lookout for my live fantasy football Q&A blog this Sunday right here at The Athletic. Please follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for links to the rest of my independent work, including advanced player data sheets, picks, props, and fantasy advice.
(Top photo: Eric Espada/Getty Image)
John is a lifetime fan and longtime analyst who crossed into content creation with his integration of technical analysis in the MLB space. He’s the man behind the @MLBMovingAvg handle on Twitter, launching the MLBMA algorithm in 2018 after having written several successful models, focused on creating the preeminent handicapping tool for fantasy baseball and sports betting. He's also the Director of MLB content at windailysports.com and will not rest until the Quality Start is fixed. Follow John on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg
