dustin albino
·5 min read
With Goodyear providing an option tire for the first time ever in a points-paying race, all 37 teams entered into Sunday‘s Cook Out 400 had 45 minutes of practice. Nine teams, led by Austin Dillon, elected to hit the track on the option tire compound as soon as the track opened. Most teams began the session with the prime Goodyear tire. Some teams, like all of Hendrick Motorsports and pre-weekend favorites Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano, waited for the track to cycle heat into it to get a baseline on a surface more comparable to race conditions and then put the option tire on later in the session.
With all those variables, it‘s a tall task to know what the best fantasy lineup will be for Sunday, particularly with teams getting two sets of option tires for the race, which help short-run speed. I‘m not making any changes to my starting lineup as all six drivers advanced to the final round of qualifying.
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Dustin Albino‘s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Denny Hamlin
Starter 2: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 3: Joey Logano
Starter 4: Christopher Bell
Starter 5: Chase Elliott
Garage pick: Chris Buescher
NEXT IN LINE: Bubba Wallace, Josh Berry, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson
RISING: Stating that the last season-and-a-half for Austin Dillon has been disappointing would be a gigantic understatement. Richard Childress Racing is among the three tier-A Chevrolet organizations in the field, and it hasn‘t translated to consistent competitive race conditions. Dillon was quickest in practice at Richmond, however, with the caveat being he began the session on the option tires. He backed that speed up in qualifying on prime tires, making the final round of qualifying for the first time on a non-superspeedway since last October at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The No. 3 car has six top-10 finishes in the last 11 Richmond events.
While Toyota has only won one of the last four Richmond races, it has always seemed to favor the manufacturer. Wallace is still looking for his first top 10 at the track, though he was in position to nail down a top five until causing a late caution in the spring race. Wallace had the fastest car in practice on the standard Goodyear tire and cracked the top 10 in qualifying for the third straight race at Richmond (eighth)
FALLING: Earlier this week in Fastlane, I was wary about Chastain this weekend. Nothing changed after practice and qualifying, despite the No. 1 car ranking as the best on 10-lap averages during practice. Much of that is because Chastain was among the first cars on the track in practice with the option tire. Qualifying might be a better gauge for this weekend, and Chastain timed in 22nd best. Entering Richmond just seven points above the elimination line, Phil Surgen, crew chief of the No. 1 Chevrolet, might need to get off strategy to best the team‘s result on Sunday.
With the choices teams have this weekend with tires, qualifying might not be as significant as most race weekends. Brad Keselowski missed the bottom lane on corner entry during both of his qualifying laps, barely hanging on to his No. 6 Ford. Last year, Buescher won this event from the 26th starting position, making Keselowski‘s 29th-place effort in qualifying look not as bad. He is among the best in the series at Richmond, with a pair of victories and 1,280 laps led. The poor starting spot does mean that he will likely miss out on stage points, though, making him a miss for my lineup.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Kyle Larson vs. William Byron: As noted in Fastlane, Hendrick Motorsports has struggled in recent years at Richmond, earning just a pair of wins at the track since 2008 (Alex Bowman in 2021; Larson 2023). Neither driver here stood out in practice or qualifying as Larson‘s three-race pole streak on short tracks came to a screeching halt. Byron bettered the No. 5 car in qualifying by a row, but I‘ll stay with Larson as the 2017 Xfinity Series champion has one finish better than seventh in 12 Richmond starts.
Denny Hamlin vs. Martin Truex Jr.: We knew this heavyweight bout between Joe Gibbs Racing teammates was going to be a tossup, and it‘s even more of a draw now. Hamlin surprised himself by winning the pole after the No. 11 car was the slowest in the opening round to advance to the final round. Truex was impressive on standard tires in practice, so I‘m going to give the slight advantage to the No. 19 Toyota, rebounding from an overtime meltdown in March.
Joey Logano vs. Chase Elliott: Both champions were the lone drivers from their respective powerhouse organizations to crack the final round of qualifying. Elliott looked to have a car capable of contending for the victory, but Logano is always in the mix at Richmond. And, albeit a completely different short track that is freshly repaved, Logano dominated the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway on the option tire. I‘ll take my chances with the No. 22 car.
Ryan Blaney vs. Alex Bowman: Neither driver is particularly fond of Richmond, even though Bowman has visited the Winner‘s Circle somewhat recently. Blaney has shown pace in qualifying before and then tanked in the race results. Three of the last four Richmond races have resulted in finishes of 17th or worse for Bowman. I‘ll flip this matchup from earlier in the week, knowing how strong Team Penske‘s short-track program has been this year.
